2023 Q3 Economic Update and Outlook

2023 Q3 Econ Update and Outlook

This year, I had the opportunity to go to the National Archives, in Washington DC.   Of course, I prepared by watching National Treasure before I went.  Perhaps even more interesting to me than the Declaration of Independence (which may or may not have an invisible treasure map on the back) was the Constitution.   This constitution instituted a new government, which has been unlike anything the world had known up to that point.   A few days later, I visited James Madison’s home (he has since moved on), and stood in the room where he penned that document in 1787, looking out the same window he looked at when he stopped to think about how to word the next phrase.  It was a powerful experience.  That document has survived since it was drafted in 1787.  The government formed by its ratification in 1788 has also survived.   The year 1787 saw something else happen that has not happened since, but may occur this year – the third consecutive year of negative returns for the ten-year treasury bond.  Bond yields are usually a sleepy part of the investment landscape, known for stability and predictable returns.  The last couple of years, they have rivaled stocks for attention.

Continue reading here: 23 3Q Econ upate.pdf