RESOURCES

Economist and investor John Hussman stated it well, “The defining feature of every bubble is the same: a growing inconsistency between the long-term returns that investors expect in their heads – based on extrapolation of the past, and the long-term returns that properly relate prices to likely future cash flows – based on valuations.

Bloom introduces the concept of the “arrival fallacy” which holds that meeting a goal will bring a lasting sense of satisfaction. He shares his own journey. He was financially successful, but a friend pointed out that since he only saw his parents once a year, he would probably only see them about fifteen more times before they died.

"Make the most of your regrets; never smother your sorrow but tend and cherish it till it comes to have a separate and integral interest. To regret deeply is to live afresh." Henry David Thoreau

After a negative year-over-year change in GDP (adjusted for inflation) in the first quarter, growth rebounded strongly to 3.8% in the second quarter, which was the strongest quarter in almost two years. It’s probably appropriate to think of the first half of the year together, as some of what might have been done in the first quarter was likely pushed back into the second quarter. The average year-over-year growth for the first two quarters was 1.6%, which is weak growth, but still growth. One could reasonably conclude that uncertainty drove weakness in the last quarter of 2024 and first quarter of 2025. We will have to wait and see. Clearly, we do not have a booming economy, though.