Here you will be able to find communications from the RIM team as well as helpful resources and articles.
The economy could get significantly worse, and investors should not panic when headlines turn from complacent to catastrophic. Economic cycles come and go.
Strong earnings could be a result of pent-up demand from COVID lockdowns and massive fiscal and monetary stimulus, high inflation with labor not catching up yet, and very low interest rates keeping interest expenses low. We see all these trends winding down, posing a threat to earnings growth.
After a rocky 2022, bonds are yielding a reasonable return again, at least if you ignore the effect of inflation on the real value of your investment. Stock valuations are at levels not sustained since way back in 2014, as measured by the popular price/earnings ratio (trailing twelve months of earnings). If you thought 2022 felt bad, it’s because it was bad.
A strong summer rally gave some hope that the bear market was over, and we could all get back to making copious amounts of money. The month of September put an end to that hope.
Stocks are still expensive, but momentum is clearly negative. Arguably the biggest driver of higher asset prices – loose monetary policy - is not only ending, but shifting into reverse. The economy appears to be weakening even as the Fed raises rates, but high inflation will keep the pressure on the Fed to keep rates higher.