25 3Q Outlook
After a negative year-over-year change in GDP (adjusted for inflation) in the first quarter, growth rebounded strongly to 3.8% in the second quarter, which was the strongest quarter in almost two years. It’s probably appropriate to think of the first half of the year together, as some of what might have been done in the first quarter was likely pushed back into the second quarter. The average year-over-year growth for the first two quarters was 1.6%, which is weak growth, but still growth. One could reasonably conclude that uncertainty drove weakness in the last quarter of 2024 and first quarter of 2025. We will have to wait and see. Clearly, we do not have a booming economy, though.