
S&P 5000
Stock market valuations have clearly been rising since early 1982. In fact, investors now pay over five times as much as in 1982 for a dollar of cyclically adjusted earnings, and 11% more than in 1929, when economist Irving Fisher declared, “stock prices have reached ‘what looks like a permanently high plateau.’” Indeed. Nearly a century later, have we finally entered a “permanently high plateau”? Are fat pills and algorithms able to do what online commerce and cat videos couldn’t? Readers must make up their own minds. The data hasn’t supported this yet, but investing is all about looking forward. As you do, I hope you look forward to my next article on what current valuations mean for future returns.