RESOURCES

While political and economic trends matter, they are always changing. The price paid for an investment today discounts all earnings from that investment into perpetuity. Price paid is the most important factor for determining investment return. Last quarter, I shared a chart from Advisor Perspectives showing the S&P 500 at very high levels according to four long-term valuation methods. This chart bears repeating as the fourth quarter saw a significant expansion of valuations. What I find striking is that the rapid bear market last March still left stocks at among the richest valuations over the last twelve decades. The spike up off that (not) low level over the last several months has few historical corollaries.

Recent wildfires have seared the property insurance market for some homeowners and businesses in the Golden State. According to the California Department of insurance, in 2017, for every $1 of premiums collected for homeowner’s insurance coverage, $2.01 was paid in out in claims, a loss ratio of 201%. In 2018, the loss ratio was 170%. This number does not account for administrative costs, including commissions, so the real damage is considerably worse. For reference, insurance carriers generally prefer a less ratio below 50-60% so they can still turn an underwriting profit after adding in administrative costs.

DIY Financial Advisor is a great book for investors who are considering managing their own portfolio or for professional investment advisors. It presents a great system- one that is accessible to those with time and interest, but it is still somewhat technical and complex.Whether an individual decides to self-implement this strategy or to hire an advisor, this book arms investors with knowledge of what pitfalls to avoid and a robust, evidence-based approach to investing.

Happy New Year. It’s already 2021 in much of the world. It’s been a strange year – a global pandemic prompted government restrictions not seen in generations, at least in the US. The way we work and shop has shifted. Social interactions have been affected. Jobless numbers jumped by unprecedented amounts (as did usage of the word “unprecedented.”) The US Government Debt grew by trillions of dollars. Social unrest was rampant. Oh, and the S&P 500 rose 16.3% and the NASDAQ 100 47.6%. Please enjoy a compilation of things I found of interest recently. As always, if you found something interesting or informative, please send to me.

Flu strains in circulation change slightly every year. Flu vaccine manufacturers include or omit specific strains based on advice given by several world-class health organizations. According to recent research, flu vaccines reduce the risk of illness by about 40 to 60%, provided the flu strains included with the vaccine match those in circulation. When people do get sick, they tend to get less sick if they've had the vaccine. With all the focus on COVID-19, we must not forget about the annual flu, which is a constant killer.